It took just days for the Iran war to hobble oil fields, refineries and gas plants across the Persian Gulf, but it could take years to restore their full potential as the conflict drags on.
More than three weeks of war have created a massive supply disruption by effectively closing the critical Strait of Hormuz, while also damaging dozens of energy assets. But as President Donald Trump claims talks are under way with Iran to end the conflict, calculating the wider economic fallout must factor in the time it will take to reboot the Gulf’s oil and gas infrastructure.
The strikes last week on the Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas complex, which houses the world’s biggest export plant, reinforce concerns that turning the taps back on won’t be quick or easy, with an official estimate of as long as five years to repair the damage.
Oil and gas production systems require steady flows operating under a pressure gradient from deep underground reservoirs to the valves that control loading onto tankers, engineers say. Even if unscathed by missiles and drones, the speed at which output can be returned to pre-war levels will depend on whether fields and their individual wells have been fully halted — and for how long — or if they were kept at minimum flow rates.
“You can’t just push the pause button when oil flows are inconvenient,” said Jim Krane, a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, who’s followed Middle East energy for more than two decades. “Interrupting such huge petroleum supply chains causes cascading effects across the globe.”
More than 40 energy assets across nine countries in the Middle East have been “severely or very severely” damaged by the war, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains after the conflict ends.
Oil Fields
Earlier this month, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said the company expects a relatively quick return — “within days” — to full production for curtailed oil fields.
While that may be true for fields that have been kept running at reduced rates, the picture is markedly different for those that have been shut completely.
It could take two to three weeks to restore full production at a small field that’s been halted, and four or five weeks for a larger one, according to Aditya Saraswat, Rystad Energy’s director of research for the Middle East and North Africa, who has a background in reservoir engineering. Rushing fields back into operation can cause damage, as pressure needs to be built gradually in the entire system, he said.
“The priority is to keep the fields running,” Saraswat said by phone from Dubai. “Once you shut down, your entire trunk line is depressurized.”
Where force majeure has been declared, fields are often shut-in completely, he said. Where production has been scaled back due to lack of storage — such as in Iraq and Kuwait — it’s likely that shut-downs have been partial, he added.
Stagnant wells can encounter issues of corrosion and wax buildup, according to Matt Randolph, an Oklahoma-based veteran of oil fields around the world for more than three decades.