Connecticut is taking an unusual step to confront a growing national problem: flood maps that lag reality. The state has launched a public climate-risk mapping tool where residents can see the estimated flood exposure of their property — along with wildfire, wind and other climate risks. The tool, which is accessible through the insurance department’s website, is powered by the same type of private risk-modeling firm that insurers turn to for setting rates.
Severe flooding in western Connecticut in 2024, in which three people died and thousands of properties were destroyed or damaged, underscored for state officials just how wide the gap can be between mapped risk and lived experience.
Interim Insurance Commissioner Josh Hershman emphasizes that the portal is informational only; it does not change insurance requirements or zoning rules. The goal, he said, is to close information gaps before the next disaster strikes.
“If you don’t see water, you might not think you have a flood risk,” he said. “This is about giving consumers as many tools as possible so they can make an educated decision.”
The initiative has ignited a familiar debate over the unintended consequences of risk disclosure. A lot of wealth is tied up in home values, and homeowners and some in the real estate industry complain that the models aren’t transparent or regulated; they worry about devaluation.
Alexander Chingas, an agent with the Bross Chingas Bross Team at Coldwell Banker Realty in Westport, said that the models have led buyers to rule out homes that are perfectly good. “The problem is some people don’t look at the tools as a starting point but rather view them as final and absolute,” Chingas said.
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Connecticut’s experiment comes against a backdrop of rising climate-fueled extreme weather catastrophes and rising home insurance costs.
Insurers use advanced risk models to determine premiums, but this has become increasingly controversial —particularly in California — as those models, which are private and not required to be responsive to homeowner feedback, have predicted levels of risk that sometimes send insurance premiums soaring.
Flood insurance is a little different since it is excluded in most home policies. Only people seeking federally backed mortgages for homes in a zone that the Federal Emergency Management Agency designates as a severe risk are required to get flood insurance. On its website, FEMA says that on average, 40% of the flood insurance claims it gets for the National Flood Insurance Program are outside of these zones. And the actual number of people experiencing flooding is likely greater than that, because that figure doesn’t represent those without flood insurance.
Connecticut decided to partner with hazard risk modeler First Street Technologies Inc. — which rates risk on a scale of one to 10 — in large part to have people re-examine whether they need flood insurance. Before launching the portal, the department asked First Street to compare its projections with the August 2024 flood footprint. The state found the modeled maps closely aligned with properties that experienced flooding.
First Street said their model identifies approximately 81,000 more properties (all types, not just residential structures) facing severe flood risk than FEMA does. That difference, they said, is largely because FEMA maps do not include localized flooding from heavy rainfall.
There is debate about which of the many private risk models is more accurate. A recent paper published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience analyzed the performance of seven of the most widely used private risk models against actual NFIP claims data and found that while three—Verisk, KatRisk and Moody’s R.M.S.—represent historical flood losses within a 4 % differential of actual NFIP claims, First Street reports flood damage estimates “nearly twice as high.”